Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.004796 1.173151 1.360683 1.585034 1.846150 2.140506 2.497613
2024-12-22 0.699029 0.911647 1.175357 1.526398 1.981570 2.552129 3.322389
2024-12-29 0.593980 0.837317 1.162789 1.629787 2.282971 3.164902 4.448058
2025-01-05 0.479078 0.719602 1.061728 1.583575 2.359929 3.473500 5.195420
2025-01-12 0.393709 0.624807 0.971510 1.529087 2.404071 3.726439 5.881741
2025-01-19 0.330267 0.550574 0.897217 1.481733 2.443813 3.967282 6.569897
2025-01-26 0.295074 0.514467 0.874975 1.509655 2.600642 4.403125 7.616891
2025-02-02 0.278659 0.506380 0.895853 1.609348 2.885893 5.079045 9.146476
2025-02-09 0.256285 0.484160 0.888797 1.658237 3.087476 5.634533 10.535838
2025-02-16 0.233221 0.457047 0.868822 1.679896 3.240725 6.120013 11.856778
2025-02-23 0.210559 0.427257 0.839545 1.679220 3.350240 6.535372 13.094317
2025-03-02 0.188958 0.396395 0.803939 1.660866 3.421733 6.884605 14.243464
2025-03-09 0.172333 0.373865 0.782839 1.670910 3.555685 7.380765 15.771323
2025-03-16 0.151012 0.338626 0.731687 1.612685 3.542832 7.583154 16.726690
2025-03-23 0.147122 0.340424 0.757842 1.721999 3.898990 8.591766 19.530666
2025-03-30 0.130699 0.311851 0.714767 1.673189 3.901909 8.845869 20.707958
2025-04-06 0.115716 0.284431 0.670581 1.615633 3.876799 9.033729 21.757334
2025-04-13 0.103092 0.260810 0.631938 1.565614 3.862072 9.241935 22.879428
2025-04-20 0.096872 0.251965 0.626787 1.595108 4.040851 9.920202 25.216472
2025-04-27 0.095523 0.255188 0.651107 1.700412 4.419343 11.119810 28.994293
2025-05-04 0.091187 0.250070 0.654100 1.752053 4.669173 12.035010 32.171962
2025-05-11 0.085732 0.241213 0.646440 1.774930 4.847436 12.792086 35.037526
2025-05-18 0.079675 0.229847 0.630757 1.774217 4.962690 13.400412 37.584551